...WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH NOON...

TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW CENTRAL AND EAST. SNOW ENDING  WEST. HIGHS AROUND 15 CENTRAL AREAS AND IN THE EAST...15 TO 20 IN THE WEST.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO.

MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES THEN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 10 TO 15.

TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS 15 TO 20 CENTRAL AREAS AND IN THE EAST...20 TO 25 IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE CENTRAL AREAS AND IN THE EAST...5 TO 15 IN THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S CENTRAL AREAS AND IN THE EAST...IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S IN THE WEST. 

THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 10 TO 20. HIGHS 30 TO 35 CENTRAL AREAS AND IN THE EAST...IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S IN THE WEST.

                                 NWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
430 AM SUN JAN 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY INCLUDE ONGOING SNOW EVENT AND HEADLINES.

THE LATEST WSR-88D HAS BANDED SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF DAVID CITY TO SCRIBNER TO MOORHEAD IA.  IT TOOK AS LONG TIME TO FINALLY MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE. CALLS TO VARIOUS COUNTIES EARLIER THIS MORNING YIELDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO 11/2 INCHES...WITH HIGHER 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS IN RICHARDSON COUNTY. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN ARKANSAS...AND 2MB PRES FALLS OVR NRN MO.  TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS.  VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WERE A MILE OR LESS AT LNK...BIE...AND FNB.  THE UA
MAPS FROM 00Z HAD 50DM HT FALLS OVR UT/AZ AT 500MB AND A STRONG 140 KT JET FM CO TO THE GRTLKS.  A COMPLEX 850MB PATTERN WAS NOTED WITH DEEP 10 DEG C MOISTURE ACRS OK INTO SRN MO.  PER PROFILES...850MB FRONT WAS NEAR STJ THIS AM.  NOTICED LIGHTNING STRIKES BY MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY 1230 AM...TOP WAS REPORTING TSRA.

HEAVY SNOW BAND PER WSR-88D HAD SET UP FROM NEAR HASTINGS TO YORK INTO ECNTRL NEB AND EXPECTED TREND IS FOR THE BAND TO PERSIST THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM.  STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS NOTED THIS MORNING...THEN INTO EASTERN IA BY MIDDAY.  WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION CONTINUES ON EAST...PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAIN UNDER LIFT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SATURATED CONDITIONS. THE MESOETA SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STORM ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE EVENING BOTH LOCATION AND AMOUNTS...AND 06Z DATA WAS EVEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE.
CONTINUED WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS...HOWEVER ...BELIEVE
PRECIPITATION MAY LAST LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH BANDED PRECIPITATION...AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER FOR PARTS OF LANCASTER...DOUGLAS...SARPY...AND POTT. IA COUNTIES.  WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES IN THE WARNING AREA. THE SNOW IS FLUFFY DO TO HIGHER SNOW RATIOS...AND THERE IS ENOUGH WIND TO MAKE MEASURING DIFFICULT.

THE STRONG VORT MAX MOVES TO NRN IL BY EVENING.  SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS.  HAVE COLD TEMPERATURES BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME SUB ZERO READINGS AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.  THE COLD HIGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP BY WED WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 20S.  MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.  THE GFS IS STILL TRENDING TOWARD SOME IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW THU THRU SAT.  LEFT CHC FOR PRECIP IN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
 

.OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...WINTER STORM WARNING SOUTHEAST OF BEATRICE TO RAYMOND TO OMAHA THROUGH 4PM TODAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH OF ALBION TO NORFOLK TO WAYNE LINE THROUGH 4PM TODAY.
.IA...WINTER STORM WARNING SOUTH OF AVOCA TO RED OAK LINE THROUGH 4PM TODAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 4PM TODAY MONONA...HARRISON AND SHELBY.
 

ZAPOTOCNY

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
301 AM CST SUN JAN 04 2004

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR MOSAIC FROM ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW STRETCHING FROM WESTERN IA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KS.  PROFILER DATA INDICATES 700MB LOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER NE COLORADO/SW NEBRASKA AT TIME WITH ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW ACROSS FA THIS EARLY MORNING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WEAK DRY SLOT PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL KS AND
SOON FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.  BOTH 00Z RUNS OF THE ETA AND GFS ARE TRACKING THIS LOW TO FAR NORTH AT THIS TIME AND 06Z RUN OF THE ETA LOOKS TOO QUICK AS WELL.  BASED OFF THIS WILL SLOW DOWN 06Z RUN OF THE ETA SLIGHTLY AND RUN WITH IT FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS.

WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS INTERESTING INTO FIRST HALF OF TODAY AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS AREA.  WITH WEAK TROWL REMAINING IN PLACE ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM AT BEGINNING OF FIRST PERIOD...FEEL CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCE IS WARRANTED OVER EASTERN 2/3'S OF NE FORECAST AREA.  HOWEVER...AS DOWN GLIDE BEGINS TO KICK IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON ANTICIPATE SNOW THREAT TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TO SOME FLURRIES OVER AREA.  ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 OR 2 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE. BASED OFF THIS WILL KEEP HEADLINES IN EFFECT FOR NE COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z BUT WILL KILL ADVISORY FOR N CENTRAL KS AS DRY SLOT IS ENDING
PRECIP THREAT.  SHOULD BE A COLD DAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS CAA LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY IN THE 15 TO 20 RANGE.

TONIGHT STARTS OFF ON THE QUIET SIDE AS SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES AREA BEHIND EXITING SHORT WAVE.  HOWEVER...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR THEN SLIDES INTO AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -20C OR COLDER PUSHING INTO AREA BY 12Z.  EXPECT THIS CAA TO KEEP SOME STRATUS OVER AREA DESPITE STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  GIVEN DENDRETIC LAYER BEING LOW ENOUGH TO BE WITHIN THE STRATUS FIELD FEEL A FEW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE OF THINGS WITH READINGS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW NEAR ORD TO 5 ABOVE NEAR OSBORNE.  THIS WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD DAY ON MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE AT BEST FOR HIGHS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO BE COLD BUT DRY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER A FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS AREA MONDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTHEAST OF AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING  EXPECT SOME WEAK WAA TO RESULT OVER AREA ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT LITTLE MORE THAN CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT FROM
THIS SETUP.

BEYOND TUESDAY EXISTING FORECAST STILL LOOKS DECENT AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
 

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH NOON.
KS...NONE.

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
846 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2004

.DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SAT PICS STARTING TO SHOW COOLING TOPS OVER 
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. KGLD AND KUEX RADARS SHOWING ENHANCED 
REFLECTIVITIES STARTING TO NUDGE THEIR WAY NORTHEAST OVER OUR 
WESTERN CWA. TONIGHT'S 0Z ETA STILL POINTING TOWARD .3-.5 LIQUID FOR 
THIS EVENT, WHICH GIVEN THE HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS, YIELDS SNOW 
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE GOING CURRENTLY. UPSHOT IS THAT WITH 
ENOUGH EVIDENCE LENDING CREDIBILITY TO OUR FORECAST, I SEE NO REASON 
TO DEVIATE FROM WHAT WE HAVE OUT NOW. THUS, STATUS QUO.



.UPDATE...NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENTS THIS AFTN PROMPTING AN UPGRADE
OF ADVISORY AREA OVR SC NEB TO A WARNING. COLD CONVEYOR BELT
DEVELOPMENT WELL UNDERWAY PER PROFILERS AND TAPPING INTO MUCH
BETTER LL MSTR OUT E. 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS ANCHORED ALG A LINE FM
YUMA COUNTY CO TO YORK CO NEB W/STOUT ORTHOGONAL FLW AT 700MB NOTED
AT RWD AHD OF EJECTING LEAD IMPULSE OVR NE CO. EVOLUTION THIS AM
SHOWS SOME UNDERESTIMATION OF 12Z MODELS ESP CONSIDERING 0 QPF UNTIL
AFT 00Z. IN ANY CASE...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHD OF EMERGING
MAIN UPR TROF...FVRBL DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...INCREASING MID LVL
DEFORMATION AS MID LVL CIRCULATION PINCHES OFF OVR NRN KS...AND
PLUME OF STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ADVTG OUT IN ASSOCN/W SW ITSELF
ALL POINT TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT ALG A HDE TO JYR
LINE. DEFINITELY A CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE
OVERNIGHT AND HOPE 8 INCH MENTION IN WARNING COVERS IT WHERE MORNING
SNOWFALL FELL (NEARLY 3 INCHES HERE). 06Z MESOETA WHICH NAILED
SNOWBAND THIS MORNING INDICATED EVEN A BIT MORE JUST SOUTH OF I-80.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SNOWFALL TO TAPER TO FLURRIES SUN AM AND ARCTIC
WEDGE OVR THE DAKOTAS GETS PULLED S BEHIND DEPARTING UPR TROF SUN
NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TRENDING COLDER INTO MON WHICH MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH GIVEN SNOWFALL TO OCCUR BEFORE HAND AND OBSERVED TEMPS
IN NDAK. WILL CONT MENTION OF FLURRIES W/ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC BOUNDARY
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MAINLY MON AM.

OTHERWISE LONG TERM PROBLEMS RELEGATED TO RTN WAA BY WED AND
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW THEN AND DEGREE OF TEMP MODERATION OVR
MODIFYING ARCTIC WEDGE AND NEW SNOW COVER. POPS WERE REMOVED YDA FOR
WED AND WILL AVOID FLIP FLOPPING BACK AT THE MOMENT GIVEN SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL REMAIN PESSIMISTIC
W/PROGGED WARMUP AS GOING GRIDS REFLECT.

THANKS TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR COORD THIS AFTN.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
955 PM SAT JAN 3 2004

.UPDATE...
FORCING DUE TO 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS HAS CAUSED A LTL INCREASE IN BANDED SNOW APPROACHING WRN CWA AS OF 0345Z AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FEEDS MOISTURE INTO REGION.  EXPECT SNOW AREA TO SHIFT/REDEVELOP EWD THRU 15Z SUNDAY AND MADE NO CHANGES TO PREV HEADLINES.  ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE THAT HEAVIEST BAND MAY ACTUALLY JUST SET UP N OF WHERE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE BASED ON ETA H7 TRACK. WITH DRY
ARCTIC AIR FEEDING INTO FAR NRN ZONES DID TRIM SNOW AMOUNTS BACK A LTL N.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...

SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...WITH TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW A SECONDARY CONCERN.
STRONG VORT MAX WAS ROUNDING WESTERN TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS POISED TO ENTER THE PLAINS TONIGHT.  130-150KT 300MB JET WAS ALSO NOTED ON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND PROGGED BY MODELS TO AFFECT THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT 850 BOUNDARY AND LOW WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  THOUGH SURFACE AIR IS DRY...MORNING SOUNDINGS AND UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE SURFACE.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROGGED TO BE ABOUT A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVERNIGHT.  PLENTY OF FRONTOGENESIS NOTED IN THE 850-700MB LAYER
AHEAD OF STORM SYSTEM...BUT WAS ONLY MAXIMIZED IN THE CWA FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY.  MODEL SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES ARE RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FROM THE GFS...WHILE ETA WAS IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE.  GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE ETA FOR SNOW AMOUNTS.  LATEST MESOETA HAD SOMEWHAT COME AROUND TO ITS PREVIOUS 06Z RUN AS FAR AS SNOW AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED...PAINTING A STRIPE OF 6+ INCHES FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.  THIS AREA IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN 06-12Z TIME FRAME.  THUS HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES IN THIS AREA...WITH AN ADVISORY FOR POINTS NORTH WHERE AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY JUST UNDER 6 INCHES.  HAVE BASED ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ON STRICTLY SNOW AMOUNTS AS ANY MIXED PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW SPEEDS TO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW COVER.  COLDEST NIGHT COULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SETTLES INTO THE REGION.  MODELS SUGGEST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDEST...BUT WARM ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH SHOULD PRODUCE BLANKET OF CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO.  A SLOW WARMUP IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.  NEXT CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL COME WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND WARM ADVECTION SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.  ANOTHER
CHANCE SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INVADES THE PLAINS.

&&

.OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...WINTER STORM WARNING SOUTHEAST OF BEATRICE TO WEEPING WATER
LINE TONIGHT TO NOON SUNDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH OF ALBION TO NORFOLK TO WAYNE LINE TONIGHT TO NOON SUNDAY.
.IA...WINTER STORM WARNING SOUTH OF GLENWOOD TO RED OAK LINE TONIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH OF ONAWA HARLAN LINE.

DERGAN/CHERMOK

STATE FORECAST FOR NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
448 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2004

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT UNTIL NOON SUNDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND NORTHEAST UNTIL NOON SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH SNOW. LOWS SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.  .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS MID AND UPPER TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO CENTRAL AREAS...5 BELOW TO ZERO IN THE WEST...2 BELOW TO 4 ABOVE ZERO IN THE EAST.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES THEN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS FROM 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS
FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHEAST AND
THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST TO
THE MID 30S SOUTHWEST.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHEAST AND THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WEST.
 
 

   URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
   228 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2004

   ...WINTER WEATHER IS RETURNING...

   .A GATHERING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT...  BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST    IOWA.  OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING..   THEN PICK UP TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE PLAINS.

   SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS AND IOWA    MISSOURI BORDERS...WITH TAPERING AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHWEST.  AREAS    GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BEATRICE TO WEEPING WATER...    GLENWOOD AND RED OAK IOWA CAN EXPECT UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH    NOON SUNDAY.  AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST TO A COLUMBUS TO TEKAMAH AND WOODBINE IOWA LINE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...INCLUDING THE    OMAHA...COUNCIL BLUFFS...LINCOLN...FAIRBURY...FREMONT AND MISSOURI    VALLEY AREAS.  AND FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...3 TO 5 INCHES ARE    POSSIBLE FROM ALBION TO NORFOLK AND WAYNE.

   IAZ079-080-090-091-NEZ067-068-089>093-041800-
   CASS-FREMONT IA-GAGE-JOHNSON-MILLS IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-
   PAGE IA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
   INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AUBURN...BEATRICE...CLARINDA...
   FALLS CITY...NEBRASKA CITY...RED OAK...SIDNEY
   228 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2004

   ...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS POSTED FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY...

   SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE NOON SUNDAY.  WHILE OFF AND ON SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH THE EVENING...THE  HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE    PAST SUNRISE SUNDAY.

   IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...DRIVE WITH EXTREME CAUTION.  REDUCE DRIVING   SPEEDS...LEAVE PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN YOU AND THE MOTORIST AHEAD OF    YOU...AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.  AVOID SUDDEN    BRAKING OR ACCELERATION...AND BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON HILLS OR WHEN MAKING TURNS.

   $$
 
 
 

   HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

AWUS43 KGID 032300
                                 AWSGRI
                                 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-041100-

                                 AREA WEATHER SUMMARY
                                 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
                                 500 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2004

                                 WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S THROUGH THE MORNING...WIND CHILL INDICES WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AT MANY LOCATIONS.  IN ADDITION SOME NARROW BANDS OF SNOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BROUGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION...WITH A NARROW SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALLS REPORTED FROM MINDEN...HEARTWELL AND HASTINGS...TO AURORA.

                                 A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN OF UTAH LATE THIS MORNING...AND WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT.  MOIST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
                                 IN THE MID ATMOSPHERE WILL ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS A COLD AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.  A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND  KANSAS AROUND DAWN SUNDAY THEN EJECT INTO IOWA BY LATE SUNDAY  AFTERNOON.

                                 A RETURN TO WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL   PLAINS STATES.   THE AREA OF SNOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEYS BY SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING. BESIDES THE SNOWFALL THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND.

                                 SNOW WILL BE LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE REGION...WITH A VARIETY OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS...WATCHES AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. AMPLE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERACTS WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE COLD AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER NEBRASKA INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS KANSAS.
 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
   320 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2004

   IAZ079-080-090-091-NEZ067-068-089>093-032330-
   CASS-FREMONT IA-GAGE-JOHNSON-MILLS IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-
   PAGE IA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
   320 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2004

   THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

   .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

   FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING  AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA  INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IS A RESULT OF ARCTIC  AIR OUT OF CANADA COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

   .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...THEN TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING.  A   RANGE OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA BEFORE  THE SNOW TAPERS TO FLURRIES.

   TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH COLDER NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS  FORECAST TO FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE  AREA.

   .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

   STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...   SPOTTERS SHOULD BE READY TO RELAY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BEGINNING TONIGHT.

   $
 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0004
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2004

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...FAR NWRN KS...SWRN AND S-CENTRAL NEB

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

   VALID 032102Z - 040230Z

   AXIS OF 1"/HR SNOWFALL LIKELY FROM NERN CO ENEWD ACROSS FAR NWRN KS
   AND SWRN/S-CENTRAL NEB THIS EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
   TONIGHT.

   IR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE AN EXPANDING REGION OF COLD CLOUD TOPS
   ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF CO IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX AND
   STRONG 300MB JET ENTRANCE REGION NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THE
   ASSOCIATED 700MB VORT CENTER WILL SHIFT ENEWD TO N-CENTRAL KS BY
   04/12Z PER 12Z ETA SOLUTION. ON THE MESOSCALE...700MB FRONTOGENESIS
   HAS BEEN STRONG THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITHIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA. SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE BY DRY
   BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...HOWEVER...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BETWEEN
   00-06Z AS UPPER TROUGH EMERGES SHOULD RESULT IN DEEPER LAYER
   SATURATION...PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND EVENTUAL MOISTENING OF
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THIS PERIOD. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
   LIKELY TO STEEPEN...AIDING IN PRECIPITATION RATES. BAROCLINIC ZONE
   WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF 700MB WAVE LATE
   TONIGHT...MAINTAINING FAVORABLE MESOSCALE FRONTOGENETIC AXIS ACROSS
   NERN CO/SWRN NEB/NWRN KS THROUGH 06Z. PERIODS OF 1"/HR SNOWS APPEAR
   LIKELY WITHIN THIS REGION BETWEEN 00-06Z COINCIDENT WITH LOCATION OF
   BEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUPPORT.

   ..BANACOS.. 01/03/2004
 

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   39659941 39500090 39410208 39710277 40430286 40770189
   40990014 41019814 40349764 39759807
 
 

                             Area forecast discussion
                             National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
                             335 PM Sat Jan 3 2004
 

                             Discussion...
snow amounts through Sunday is the main forecast concern...with temperatures to follow a secondary concern.
 

Strong vorticity maximum was rounding western trough this afternoon...and is poised to enter the plains tonight. 130-150kt 300mb jet was also noted on upper air analysis and prognosticated by models to affect the area overnight. Surface cold front was well to the south...but 850 boundary and low will track just south of the forecast area overnight. Though surface air is dry...morning soundings and upper air charts showed plenty of moisture off the surface. Precipitable water is prognosticated to be about a half to three quarters of an inch overnight. Plenty of frontogenesis noted in the 850-700mb layer ahead of storm system...but was only maximized in the county warning area from 06-12z Sunday. Model specific humidities are ranging from 2 to 4
from the GFS...while ETA model was in the 5 to 6 range. Given available moisture from upper air analysis...have opted to follow the ETA model for snow amounts. Latest mesoeta had somewhat come around to its previous 06z run as far as snow amounts are concerned...painting a stripe of 6+ inches from southeast Nebraska across southern Iowa.  This area is also just north of best isentropic upglide in 06-12z
time frame. Thus have issued Winter Storm Warning based on snow amounts up to 8 inches in this area...with an advisory for points north where amounts should stay just under 6 inches. Have based all warnings and advisories on strictly snow amounts as any mixed precipitation will stay south of the area based on forecast soundings...and winds with this system should stay well below speeds to cause considerable blowing and drifting.
 

 Temperatures over the next several days have been trimmed due to expected snow cover. Coldest night could be Sunday night as high pressure quickly settles into the region. Models suggest Monday night as the coldest...but warm advection on back side of high should produce blanket of clouds to keep temperatures from dropping well below zero. A slow warmup is still expected through the week. Next
chances for snow will come Wednesday through Thursday as a clipper type system and warm advection sweep through the area. Another chance Saturday with another cold front invades the plains.
 

 Oax...watches/warnings/advisories...NE...Winter Storm Warning southeast of Beatrice to Weeping Water line from midnight to noon Sunday.  Winter Weather Advisory south of Albion Norfolk Wayne line from midnight to noon Sunday. 

Iowa...Winter Storm Warning south of Glenwood to Red Oak line from  midnight to noon Sunday.    Winter Weather Advisory south of Onawa Harlan line.

                             Dergan
 
 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
445 am Sat Jan 3 2004
 

Discussion...
 

The primary forecast challenge continues to focus on the winter
storm development...amounts...location of heavy snow...and if precipitation
will be mixed over southern zones.
 

The latest surface analysis had a 1024mb high building into Montana with
the cold front well into Kansas and Missouri. Surface temperatures were in the
teens at Yukon...20s north and 30s southern portions of the forecast area. The
winds were brisk northwest with dewpoints in the single digits and teens.
The best 3hr pressure changes were around 4mb across the oax area.
The oax evening sounding was nearly saturated at 624mb and mainly
dry below 12k feet. The lbf sounding was similar to oax's...but
saturated in a deeper layer with the base around 650mb (11700ft).
Temperatures in the layer were - to - degree c. The top sounding
was fairly dry to 400mb. The upper air maps had 100m heat falls with the
shortwave trough over the Dakotas and 5om heat falls with the west coast
trough. The deeper 850mb moisture was over East Texas and la. A 120kt
broad 300mb jet stretched from the California coast to the Great Lakes.
 

The short range models have come closer together...with the 00z ETA model
more in line with the 00z GFS. The ETA model continues to bounce back and
forth from lighter to heavier snowfall amounts. The GFS has been
fairly consistent in showing the potential for heavy snow. The 06z
mesoeta had a lot more quantitative precipitation forecast with higher 8 inch snowfall maxes
compared to 4 inch maxes. The pattern over the next 36 hours has the
middle level trough over the California coast lifting into The Rockies today and
the plains Sunday morning. The surface low tracks from nm across Texas into
eastern OK. The 850mb lows track near mkc...and the 700mb lows near or
north of Omaha. Several factors to assist in snow production. Parts of
the forecast area will be under the right rear exit region of the
jet today into early Sunday. The area will see synoptic lift for an
extended period of time...with maximum lift late this evening into
Sunday morning. Isentropic lift...frontogenetic forcing...and negative
pvus expected over the watch area. While temperatures in the
forecast soundings support snow for the entire county warning area...this is a lack
of ice crystals for some of the southern zones this after and this
evening. Thus left the mention of mixed precipitation for the southern
zone groups. Forecast soundings also show the dry air will take
some time to overcome.
 

During the wwe call...a blend of the GFS/ETA model was used for the first
36 hours. The heavy snow (6-9") area includes much of ecntrl Nebraska
and wedges out across much of the southern two thirds of Iowa into northern
Illinois and southern WI. Timing of better accumulating snows expected tonight
into Sunday morning. With the delayed start...in coordination with
surrounding offices opted to continue the Winter Storm Watch from
6pm tonight until noon Sunday.
 

Mentioned scattered flurries or a chance of light snow or mix south
today with much colder temperatures in the 20s and 30s. Expect snow
to become widespread tonight and heavy at times with lows in the
teens to lower 20s. The bulk of the snow is forecast to end by Sun
afternoon...and kept some chance into the evening. Very cold
temperatures both Monday and Tuesday with Cold Ridge in place. Morning
lows in the single digit above and below zero readings. Broad upper
trough gradually gives way to moderation by the end of the week. Left
some small probability of precipitation chance in during the extended period.

Oax...watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...wint. Storm watch 6pm today through noon sun. Along and south
of a line Albion...Norfolk...Pender.
Iowa...wint. Storm watch 6pm today through noon sun. All counties in
forecast area

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