NEZ011-012-016-017-051000-
ANTELOPE-CEDAR-KNOX-PIERCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTINGTON...NELIGH
1153 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 17.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND
20. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 6 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 8. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW THEN PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 13.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR ZERO. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 15. WIND CHILL VALUES 8
BELOW TO 18 BELOW ZERO.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN CLEARING. LOWS 3
BELOW. WIND CHILL VALUES 13 BELOW TO 23 BELOW ZERO.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 20.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 8.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. WINDY.
HIGHS AROUND 18.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
WINDY. LOWS AROUND 6.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 18.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 4.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 18.

$$

NEZ018-030>033-042>044-051000-
BOONE-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-MADISON-PLATTE-STANTON-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBION...COLUMBUS...FREMONT...NORFOLK...
WAYNE
1153 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004

...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 18.
EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND
20. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION 5 TO 7 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 9. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15
MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF
SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW THEN PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 14.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 1. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 16. WIND CHILL VALUES 7
BELOW TO 17 BELOW ZERO.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN CLEARING. LOWS 2
BELOW. WIND CHILL VALUES 12 BELOW TO 22 BELOW ZERO.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 9.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. WINDY.
HIGHS AROUND 19.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
WINDY. LOWS AROUND 7.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 19.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 5.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.

$$

IAZ043-055-056-NEZ015-034-045-051000-
BURT-HARRISON IA-MONONA IA-SHELBY IA-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLAIR...HARLAN...ONAWA...TEKAMAH
1153 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004

...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 18.
EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 20.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 6 TO 8 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 9. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW THEN PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 14.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 1. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 15. WIND CHILL
VALUES 8 BELOW TO 18 BELOW ZERO.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN CLEARING. LOWS 3
BELOW. WIND CHILL VALUES 11 BELOW TO 21 BELOW ZERO.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 20.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 9.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. BREEZY.
HIGHS AROUND 19.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 7.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 20.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 5.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 20.

$$

NEZ050-051-065-066-051000-
BUTLER-LANCASTER-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LINCOLN...SEWARD
1153 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004

...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 19.
EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION 5 TO 7 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 11. NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW THEN PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 14.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 2. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 18. WIND CHILL VALUES 6
BELOW TO 16 BELOW ZERO.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN CLEARING. LOWS 1
BELOW. WIND CHILL VALUES 8 BELOW TO 18 BELOW ZERO.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 10.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. BREEZY.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 8.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 20.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 6.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.

$$

IAZ069-079-080-090-091-NEZ052-053-067-068-051000-
CASS-DOUGLAS-FREMONT IA-MILLS IA-MONTGOMERY IA-OTOE-PAGE IA-
POTTAWATTAMIE IA-SARPY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLEVUE...CLARINDA...COUNCIL BLUFFS...
NEBRASKA CITY...OMAHA...RED OAK...SIDNEY
1153 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004

...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 19.
EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 6 TO 8 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 12. NORTH WINDS 5
TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW THEN PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 15.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 3. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 18. WIND CHILL
VALUES 8 BELOW TO 18 BELOW ZERO.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN CLEARING. LOWS 1
BELOW. WIND CHILL VALUES 8 BELOW TO 18 BELOW ZERO.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 11.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. BREEZY.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 9.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 20.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 7.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.

$$

NEZ078-088-089-051000-
GAGE-JEFFERSON-SALINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEATRICE...CRETE...FAIRBURY
1153 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004

...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS IN THE LOWER
20S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION 5 TO 7 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 13. NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW THEN PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 15.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 4. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 19.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN CLEARING. LOWS
NEAR ZERO.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 12.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. BREEZY.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 10.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 8.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.

$$

NEZ090>093-051000-
JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AUBURN...FALLS CITY
1153 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004

...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS IN THE LOWER
20S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION 6 TO 8 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 14. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH AND GUSTY. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW THEN PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 16.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 5. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 19.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN CLEARING. LOWS
NEAR ZERO.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 13.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. BREEZY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 11.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 9.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.

$$

GRIFFIS
 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
830 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004

AS OF 800 PM CST (700 PM MST) PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS LISTED
BELOW WERE PROVIDED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS AND CITIZENS OF WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE NWS THANKS YOU FOR THIS VALUABLE INFORMATION.

...LOCATION...      ...COUNTY...    ...TOTAL (INCHES)...

RED WILLOW DAM        FRONTIER             6.0
TAYLOR                THOMAS               5.0
EUSTIS 2NW            FRONTIER             4.5
BROKEN BOW            CUSTER               3.0
STAPLETON             LOGAN                3.0
JOHNSON               BROWN                3.0
CHAPPEL               DEUEL                3.0
HAYES CENTER          HAYES                3.0
NORTH PLATTE          LINCOLN              2.7
OGALLALA              KEITH                2.0
IMPERIAL              CHASE                2.0
ANSELMO               CUSTER               1.5
VALENTINE             CHERRY               1.0
MULLEN                HOOKER               1.0
 

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
845 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...LATEST ETA AND 0Z U/A DATA INDICATE THAT THE SNOW WILL 
NOT ABATE UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST 
AND NUMEROUS WAVES ROTATING AROUND, INCLUDING ONE OVER THE EXTREME 
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, THINK THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL PERSIST 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. UPSHOT IS THAT WE ARE NOT 
PLANNING ANY CHANGES FROM WHAT WE HAVE GOING CURRENTLY.  JUST WANTED 
TO GET OUR THOUGHTS OUT BEFORE THE 10 PM NEWS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PLENTY OF SNOW FALLING FOR MOST
OF FORECAST AREA. CURRENT AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH RANGE IN
SOUTHWEST PART OF CWA...LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP
WARNING GOING AS IS FOR NOW...BUT AS SNOW LINGERS LONGER THURSDAY...
LENGTH OF WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
COLORADO WILL MOVE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THIS TRACK WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. LOOK FOR THERE TO BE REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT
THE MAIN LIFT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THAT HAS HAD SNOW
TODAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. TONIGHT THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281 AND ON THURSDAY IN THE NORTHEAST AS WRAP AROUND FROM THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE 15 TO 25 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH LESS BLOWING AND
DRIFTING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW CENTER POSITIONED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH LOW FINALLY MOVING EAST INTO IOWA THURSDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL TREND EACH RUN HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW.  WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION...WRAPAROUND SNOWFALL
WILL LINGER FURTHER INTO THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED BUT INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL WILL DECREASE AND HAVE KEPT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH.

SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG WINDS ARRIVE BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY.  H85
WINDS STILL PROGGED AT 30-40KTS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH.
ANOTHER WAVE DIGS SOUTH FROM ONTARIO INTO MEAN UPPER TROF TO OUR
EAST.  STRONGER COLD ADVECTION AND WINDS APPEAR TO BE EAST OF OUR
AREA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THEN
HEIGHTS RISE LATE SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING...AS NEXT
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  MODELS OFFER VARYING
SOLUTIONS ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH MORE SNOW
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY...OR LINGERING LONGER INTO NEXT WEEK...
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND ITS SOLUTION.  WITH DIFFERENCES IN
OVERALL PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WILL LEAVE SNOW CHANCES AS IS FOR MONDAY
WITH NO MAJOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR FURNAS...HARLAN...
FRANKLIN.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM THURSDAY FOR WEBSTER...
NUCKOLLS...THAYER...FILLMORE...CLAY...ADAMS...KEARNEY...PHELPS...
GOSPER...DAWSON...BUFFALO...HALL...HAMILTON...YORK...POLK...
MERRICK...NANCE...HOWARD...SHERMAN...VALLEY...GREELEY
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR
PHILLIPS...ROOKS...SMITH...OSBORNE
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM THURSDAY FOR JEWELL...MITCHELL

&&

$$

JCB/FAY/16

...WINTER STORM WARNING SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL THROUGH NOON
THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST THROUGH NOON
THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SNOW WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
LOWS 10 TO 20.
.THURSDAY...SNOW LIKELY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW EAST...WITH SNOW LIKELY CENTRAL. SCATTERED
FLURRIES WEST. LOWS 5 TO 15.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED FLURRIES CENTRAL AND EAST.
HIGHS 10 TO 20 EAST AND CENTRAL...20 TO 30 WEST.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 0 TO 5 EAST AND FAR SOUTHWEST...0 TO 5
BELOW ZERO CENTRAL...0 TO 10 BELOW WEST. HIGHS 15 TO 20 EAST AND
CENTRAL...25 TO 35 WEST.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FAR SOUTHWEST.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS 20S CENTRAL AND EAST WITH
30 TO 40 WEST.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR ALL BUT THE
PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE
MID TEENS SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE 20S CENTRAL AND EAST WITH 30S WEST.

$$

NWS

...FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WINTER STORM NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...

.NEAR TERM...
SNOW CONTINUING TO FLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WINTER STORM CONTINUES
TO POUND THE AREA. MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE LOW ACROSS KANSAS
WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO BE WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THURSDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 RANGE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW. WILL KEEP THE HEADLINES GOING AS IS AND
FOCUS ON STORM SNOW TOTALS AND SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING THIS EVENING
AS WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOME
OF THIS FRESH SNOW. MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THE
HEADLINES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM DROPPING HEADLINES BUT
WITH THE LOW YET TO PULL OUT OF THE ROCKIES...CONFIDENCE NOT
EXTREMELY HIGH FOR TOMORROW ACCUMULATIONS OR WINDS.

IN GENERAL...SNOW ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED
WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. RANGING
FROM AROUND 1 ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO AROUND 6 IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HIGHEST REPORT SO FAR WAS AROUND 6 INCHES NEAR RED
WILLOW DAM IN FRONTIER COUNTY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE STORM IS SLOW TO DIMINISH...FINALLY
STARTING TO CLEAR OUT FRIDAY. THEN FOCUS TURNS TO TEMPERATURES. WITH
NEW SNOW COVER EXPECTING GUIDANCE NUMBERS TO BE TO WARM. AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTING DECREASING CLOUDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY COLD MORNING SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO.

.EXTENDED...
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES ON THE COLD SIDE WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
ONGOING FORECAST IN DESCENT SHAPE WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING THRU THURSDAY NE038-058-059-069>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY THRU THURSDAY NEZ007-010-022>029-
035>037-056-057.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PLENTY OF SNOW FALLING FOR MOST
OF FORECAST AREA. CURRENT AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH RANGE IN
SOUTHWEST PART OF CWA...LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP
WARNING GOING AS IS FOR NOW...BUT AS SNOW LINGERS LONGER THURSDAY...
LENGTH OF WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
COLORADO WILL MOVE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THIS TRACK WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. LOOK FOR THERE TO BE REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT
THE MAIN LIFT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THAT HAS HAD SNOW
TODAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. TONIGHT THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281 AND ON THURSDAY IN THE NORTHEAST AS WRAP AROUND FROM THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE 15 TO 25 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH LESS BLOWING AND
DRIFTING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW CENTER POSITIONED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH LOW FINALLY MOVING EAST INTO IOWA THURSDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL TREND EACH RUN HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW.  WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION...WRAPAROUND SNOWFALL
WILL LINGER FURTHER INTO THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED BUT INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL WILL DECREASE AND HAVE KEPT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH.

SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG WINDS ARRIVE BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY.  H85
WINDS STILL PROGGED AT 30-40KTS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH.
ANOTHER WAVE DIGS SOUTH FROM ONTARIO INTO MEAN UPPER TROF TO OUR
EAST.  STRONGER COLD ADVECTION AND WINDS APPEAR TO BE EAST OF OUR
AREA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THEN
HEIGHTS RISE LATE SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING...AS NEXT
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  MODELS OFFER VARYING
SOLUTIONS ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH MORE SNOW
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY...OR LINGERING LONGER INTO NEXT WEEK...
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND ITS SOLUTION.  WITH DIFFERENCES IN
OVERALL PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WILL LEAVE SNOW CHANCES AS IS FOR MONDAY
WITH NO MAJOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR FURNAS...HARLAN...
FRANKLIN.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM THURSDAY FOR WEBSTER...
NUCKOLLS...THAYER...FILLMORE...CLAY...ADAMS...KEARNEY...PHELPS...
GOSPER...DAWSON...BUFFALO...HALL...HAMILTON...YORK...POLK...
MERRICK...NANCE...HOWARD...SHERMAN...VALLEY...GREELEY
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR
PHILLIPS...ROOKS...SMITH...OSBORNE
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM THURSDAY FOR JEWELL...MITCHELL

JCB/FAY

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PLENTY OF SNOW FALLING FOR MOST
OF FORECAST AREA. CURRENT AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH RANGE IN
SOUTHWEST PART OF CWA...LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP
WARNING GOING AS IS FOR NOW...BUT AS SNOW LINGERS LONGER THURSDAY...
LENGTH OF WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
COLORADO WILL MOVE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THIS TRACK WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. LOOK FOR THERE TO BE REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT
THE MAIN LIFT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THAT HAS HAD SNOW
TODAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. TONIGHT THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281 AND ON THURSDAY IN THE NORTHEAST AS WRAP AROUND FROM THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE 15 TO 25 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH LESS BLOWING AND
DRIFTING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW CENTER POSITIONED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH LOW FINALLY MOVING EAST INTO IOWA THURSDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL TREND EACH RUN HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW.  WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION...WRAPAROUND SNOWFALL
WILL LINGER FURTHER INTO THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED BUT INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL WILL DECREASE AND HAVE KEPT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH.

SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG WINDS ARRIVE BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY.  H85
WINDS STILL PROGGED AT 30-40KTS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH.
ANOTHER WAVE DIGS SOUTH FROM ONTARIO INTO MEAN UPPER TROF TO OUR
EAST.  STRONGER COLD ADVECTION AND WINDS APPEAR TO BE EAST OF OUR
AREA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THEN
HEIGHTS RISE LATE SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING...AS NEXT
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  MODELS OFFER VARYING
SOLUTIONS ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH MORE SNOW
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY...OR LINGERING LONGER INTO NEXT WEEK...
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND ITS SOLUTION.  WITH DIFFERENCES IN
OVERALL PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WILL LEAVE SNOW CHANCES AS IS FOR MONDAY
WITH NO MAJOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR FURNAS...HARLAN...
FRANKLIN.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM THURSDAY FOR WEBSTER...
NUCKOLLS...THAYER...FILLMORE...CLAY...ADAMS...KEARNEY...PHELPS...
GOSPER...DAWSON...BUFFALO...HALL...HAMILTON...YORK...POLK...
MERRICK...NANCE...HOWARD...SHERMAN...VALLEY...GREELEY
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR
PHILLIPS...ROOKS...SMITH...OSBORNE
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM THURSDAY FOR JEWELL...MITCHELL

&&

$$

JCB/FAY
 
 

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND IMPENDING WINTER STORM AND 
WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW TO FORECAST. MODEL TRENDS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW ONCE EVERYONE 
SATURATES LATER THIS EVENING.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS COLORADO WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD 
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INITIAL PROBLEM APPEARS TO BE A LAYER 
OF DRIER AIR...MUCH DRIER THAN THE MODELS ANTICIPATED...AND THUS 
IT'S TAKING ADDITIONAL TIME TO SATURATE. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE 
REGION BY MID AFTERNOON THOUGH INDICATED THAT SNOW WAS BEGINNING IN 
SOME AREAS...WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER BANDS AROUND 1 
MILE...BUT OVERALL 3 TO 5 MILES WHERE SNOW WAS OCCURRING.  BELIEVE 
THAT THE RUC/NGM MAY BE ONTO A TREND THAT IT WILL TAKE A FEW MORE 
HOURS TO FULLY SATURATE BEFORE THE SNOW COMMENCES AREAWIDE FOR THE 
DURATION BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT EXISTS ACROSS THE CWA 
OVERNIGHT...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LARGE SCALE 
ASCENT DIMINISHES. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE THE LARGE 
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD.  AFTER 
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WE'RE LEFT 
BEHIND IN A BROAD DEFORMATION BAND WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY 
MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE 
LIGHT...BUT NONETHELESS IT WILL STILL BE SNOWING...BUT TAPERING OFF 
TO FLURRIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVIER 
BURSTS OF SNOW AS WE SAW WITH THE PREVIOUS STORM THIS PAST 
WEEKEND...BUT DUE TO THE LENGTH OF SNOW OCCURRING...SNOW AMOUNTS ON 
THE ORDER OF 4 TO 8 INCHES STILL LOOK GOOD. PLAN TO RUN THE LOWER 
AMOUNTS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WITH A SWATH AROUND 6 INCHES 
FROM BEATRICE TO TO NORFOLK...WITH PERHAPS 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG AND 
EAST OF HIGHWAY 77.

WINDS THROUGH THE EVENT WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE 
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FROM THE EAST INITIALLY BUT SWITCHING TO THE 
NORTHWEST. IT APPEARS THAT WINDS DON'T REALLY PICK UP TO THE BREEZY 
CATEGORY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT AT THAT TIME, THE 
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD BE OVER. 

WITH REGARD TO OUR CURRENT SUITE OF HEADLINES...WE INTEND TO LEAVE 
THEM INTACT AT THIS TIME.  THIS AMOUNTS TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 
FOR OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA AND A WINTER STORM WARNING ELSEWHERE 
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL IMPACT COULD BE LOWER 
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM DUE TO THE LONGER DURATION...ALLOWING 
ROAD CREWS TO KEEP UP WITH THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WITH ONE TO 
THREE INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...THEN ANOTHER INCH OR SO ON THE TAIL END.

THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY WITH COLD 
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.  ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT STILL EDGES INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS 
TO BE RATHER LIMITED. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE 
OF SNOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LATE IN THE FORECAST...MID 
WEEK...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF 
THE REGION...AND HAVE LEFT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...WINTER STORM WARNING NEZ015-018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
      065>068-078-088>093 THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEZ011-012-016-017 THROUGH THURSDAY
      NIGHT.

.IA...WINTER STORM WARNING IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091 
      THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

DEWALD

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT). FOCUS IS ON WINTER 
WEATHER AT HAND.

UPPER LOW ANALYZED THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT WILL 
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...AND IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN 
CO BY THIS EVENING. SEMI-PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND VORT MAXES 
ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED SNOW EVENT 
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT WITH QUITE THE 
ACCUMULATIONS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. 

AS MENTIONED AS A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR YESTERDAY...MODEL SIGNAL 
FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS INTENSIFIED. IN 
ADDITION...MODELS HAVE POORLY INITIALIZED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
FIELD TO THE SOUTH. 00Z 850MB ANALYSIS REVEALING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
STILL SUPPRESSED NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER...WITH 1C ANALYZED AT 
BROWNSVILLE. MEANWHILE...BOTH THE ETA/GFS MODELS INITIALIZED WITH 
5-6C AT THIS LOCATION. SO GOOD MOISTURE RETURN STILL LACKING...AND 
IT APPEARS THAT BY THE TIME IT DOES GET GOING...THE CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTERCEPTS IT. PROBLEM IS THE PROLONGED 
NATURE OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL 
MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

EXPECT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD VORT MAX TO 
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
ISENTROPIC LIFT THEN WEAKENS FOR A TIME...AND WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK 
IN THE WIDESPREAD SNOW UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY WHEN THE LIFT RESUMES IN 
CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER VORT MAX EVIDENT ON IR 
SATELLITE NOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. RETURNS FROM DDC 88D FILLING 
IN BUT STILL NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS AREA...AND WITH CONVECTION 
TO THE SOUTH EXPECTED TO BE GETTING UNDERWAY BY THE TIME IT WRAPS UP 
HERE...MODELS INDICATING A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS 
VORT MAX TO WORK WITH. WE MAY HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE HEAVIEST 
SNOWFALL FOR ANY GIVEN TIME PERIOD OF THIS EVENT. 

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...WILL BACK OFF A BIT FROM PREVIOUS SNOW 
TOTALS...GOING GENERALLY FOR 5-7 NORTH OF I-80...6-8 SOUTH...AND 
8-10 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  WILL MAINTAIN WSW AS IS 

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...AGAIN TONIGHT LITTLE TIME 
FOR MUCH OF A LOOK AT LONGER TERM STUFF. CHANGES TO THE ONGOING 
FORECAST WERE MINOR. CWFA STAYS UNDER NNW FLOW THROUGH PERIOD...AND 
ACTUALLY MORE NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES UP INTO 
WESTERN CANADA. EARLY ON THOUGH...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE 
REGION SATURDAY BRINGING A SUNNY BUT COLD DAY. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT 
A VERY COLD NIGHT SATURDAY IF CLOUDS STAY WEST...AND RETURN FLOW 
DOESN/T SET UP. THIS MAY BE MORE PLAUSIBLE NOW WITH THE CURRENT 
SYSTEM SEEMINGLY SLOWING SOME. AT ANY RATE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN 
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER TURN TO COLDER 
WEATHER TUESDAY. BRISK WINDS APPEAR A GOOD BET EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
SNOWFALL CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGHOUT...SO NO CHANGES MADE 
TO PREVIOUS GRIDS TO SPEAK OF. SYSTEMS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 
TROUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND FEEL CURRENT SMALL 
POPS COVER THE SITUATION. 

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR 
FURNAS...HARLAN...FRANKLIN.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM THURSDAY FOR 
WEBSTER...NUCKOLLS...THAYER...FILLMORE...CLAY...ADAMS...KEARNEY... 
PHELPS...GOSPER...DAWSON...BUFFALO...HALL...HAMILTON...YORK...POLK...
MERRICK...NANCE...HOWARD...SHERMAN...VALLEY...GREELEY 
KS...WINTER STORM  WARNING UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR 
PHILLIPS...ROOKS...SMITH...OSBORNE
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM THURSDAY FOR JEWELL...MITCHELL

&&

$$

VII/MORITZ

CORRECTED WARNING INFORMATION 

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT). FOCUS IS ON WINTER 
WEATHER AT HAND.

UPPER LOW ANALYZED THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT WILL 
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...AND IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN 
CO BY THIS EVENING. SEMI-PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND VORT MAXES 
ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED SNOW EVENT 
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT WITH QUITE THE 
ACCUMULATIONS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. 

AS MENTIONED AS A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR YESTERDAY...MODEL SIGNAL 
FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS INTENSIFIED. IN 
ADDITION...MODELS HAVE POORLY INITIALIZED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
FIELD TO THE SOUTH. 00Z 850MB ANALYSIS REVEALING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
STILL SUPPRESSED NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER...WITH 1C ANALYZED AT 
BROWNSVILLE. MEANWHILE...BOTH THE ETA/GFS MODELS INITIALIZED WITH 
5-6C AT THIS LOCATION. SO GOOD MOISTURE RETURN STILL LACKING...AND 
IT APPEARS THAT BY THE TIME IT DOES GET GOING...THE CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTERCEPTS IT. PROBLEM IS THE PROLONGED 
NATURE OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL 
MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

EXPECT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD VORT MAX TO 
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
ISENTROPIC LIFT THEN WEAKENS FOR A TIME...AND WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK 
IN THE WIDESPREAD SNOW UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY WHEN THE LIFT RESUMES IN 
CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER VORT MAX EVIDENT ON IR 
SATELLITE NOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. RETURNS FROM DDC 88D FILLING 
IN BUT STILL NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS AREA...AND WITH CONVECTION 
TO THE SOUTH EXPECTED TO BE GETTING UNDERWAY BY THE TIME IT WRAPS UP 
HERE...MODELS INDICATING A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS 
VORT MAX TO WORK WITH. WE MAY HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE HEAVIEST 
SNOWFALL FOR ANY GIVEN TIME PERIOD OF THIS EVENT. 

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...WILL BACK OFF A BIT FROM PREVIOUS SNOW 
TOTALS...GOING GENERALLY FOR 5-7 NORTH OF I-80...6-8 SOUTH...AND 
8-10 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  WILL MAINTAIN WSW AS IS 

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...AGAIN TONIGHT LITTLE TIME 
FOR MUCH OF A LOOK AT LONGER TERM STUFF. CHANGES TO THE ONGOING 
FORECAST WERE MINOR. CWFA STAYS UNDER NNW FLOW THROUGH PERIOD...AND 
ACTUALLY MORE NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES UP INTO 
WESTERN CANADA. EARLY ON THOUGH...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE 
REGION SATURDAY BRINGING A SUNNY BUT COLD DAY. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT 
A VERY COLD NIGHT SATURDAY IF CLOUDS STAY WEST...AND RETURN FLOW 
DOESN/T SET UP. THIS MAY BE MORE PLAUSIBLE NOW WITH THE CURRENT 
SYSTEM SEEMINGLY SLOWING SOME. AT ANY RATE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN 
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER TURN TO COLDER 
WEATHER TUESDAY. BRISK WINDS APPEAR A GOOD BET EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
SNOWFALL CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGHOUT...SO NO CHANGES MADE 
TO PREVIOUS GRIDS TO SPEAK OF. SYSTEMS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 
TROUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND FEEL CURRENT SMALL 
POPS COVER THE SITUATION. 

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR 
FURNAS...HARLAN...FRANKLIN.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING 6 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 12 PM THURSDAY FOR 
WEBSTER...NUCKOLLS...THAYER...FILLMORE...CLAY...ADAMS...KEARNEY...PHE
LPS...GOSPER...DAWSON...BUFFALO...HALL...HAMILTON...YORK...POLK...MER
RICK...NANCE...HOWARD...SHERMAN...VALLEY...GREELEY 
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR 
PHILLIPS...ROOKS...SMITH...OSBORNE
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS MORNING UNTIL 12 PM THURSDAY FOR 
JEWELL...MITCHELL

&&

$$

VII/MORITZ

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
413 AM CST WED FEB 4 2004

A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ONCE THE STORM IS UNDERWAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BECOME VERY
DANGEROUS OR EVEN LIFE THREATENING...IF YOU ARE NOT PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTIONS TO PROTECT YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...YOU SHOULD ATTEMPT TO FIND SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE YOU SHOULD PREPARE A
WINDBREAK FOR PROTECTION. ATTEMPT TO STAY DRY AND STAY AWAKE. COVER
ALL EXPOSED PARTS OF THE BODY. EXERCISE FROM TIME TO TIME BY
VIGOROUSLY MOVING YOUR ARMS AND LEGS TO KEEP BLOOD CIRCULATING AND TO
KEEP WARM. DO NOT EAT SNOW.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN A VEHICLE...YOU SHOULD STAY IN YOUR VEHICLE
UNLESS SHELTER CAN BE SEEN JUST YARDS AWAY. DISORIENTATION OCCURS
QUICKLY IN WIND DRIVEN SNOW AND COLD. RUN THE MOTOR ABOUT 10
MINUTES EACH HOUR FOR HEAT. MAKE SURE THE EXHAUST PIPE IS NOT
BLOCKED. KEEP A WINDOW CRACKED TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING.
MAKE YOURSELF VISIBLE TO RESCUERS BY TURNING ON THE DOME LIGHT
WHEN RUNNING THE ENGINE OR TIE A COLORED CLOTH ON YOUR ANTENNA.

IF YOU ARE AT HOME OR IN A BUILDING...YOU SHOULD STAY INSIDE. IF YOU
MUST GO OUTSIDE...DRESS WARMLY IN SEVERAL LAYERS OF LIGHT CLOTHING
AND REMAIN OUTSIDE FOR ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME.

$$

CDC

SNOW EVENT IS UNDERWAY. REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC PIX SHOWS WIDESPREAD
SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NEB THIS MORNING. REPORTS FROM
GID INDICATE ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. DILEMMA NOW
IS TO TRY AND DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS OVER AREAS OF CONCERN. WWE
CONFERENCE CALL REVEALED THEY STILL HAVE CONCERNS THAT CONVECTION
WILL ROB A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...HENCE SOMEWHAT LIMITING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST HPC QPF MAPS REFLECT THIS WITH MAX QPF VALUES
PEGGED OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. NOT SO SURE THAT THAT WILL BE
THE CASE. CURRENT OBS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INDICATE DEW
POINTS ARE RISING DRAMATICALLY THIS HOUR. ALSO NOTICED THAT PROFILERS
AT THE LOWER LEVELS ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO
STREAK NORTHWARD THRU TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING AMPLE
AVAILABILITY.

ALSO...HAVE NOTICED THAT THE ETA HAS PROGRESSIVELY TAKEN THE HEAVIER
SNOW ACCUMULATION TOTALS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SHIFTED
THAT PROGRESSIVELY NORTHWARD INTO SECTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA. THE
LATEST UKMET APPEARS TO ALSO BE TRYING TO DISPLACE HEAVIER
ACCUMULATION FARTHER NORTH. TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION CURRENT
TRENDS...AM INCLINED TO BEGIN THE WINTER STORM WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...6 TO 10 INCH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS DOESN'T
SEEM UNREASONABLE BY EVENTS END...DISPITE LATEST WWE SNOW
ACCUMULATION GRAPHIC. FOR NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA...WILL
COVER WITH AN ADVISORY RUNNING THROUGH THE SAME TIME AS THE WARNING.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...NORTHWEST FLOW STILL PROGGED OVER THE
PLAINS THRU DAY 7...HENCE CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW RETURNS MONDAY AS MODELS ADVERTISE ANOTHER WAVE
PASSING THRU.

&&

.OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...WINTER STORM WARNING NEZ015-018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
      065>068-078-088>093 FROM NOON TODAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEZ011-012-016-017 FROM NOON TODAY THRU
      THURSDAY NIGHT.

.IA...WINTER STORM WARNING IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091 FROM
      NOON TODAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

DEE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
114 AM CST WED FEB 4 2004

...FORECAST FOCUS IS LONG DURATION WINTER STORM THROUGH FRIDAY...

.NEAR TERM...

THE "MAJOR WINTER STORM" IS UNDERWAY.  TECHNICALLY IT PROBABLY WONT
BE A STORM SINCE WE ARE ONLY FORECASTING 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN 24
HOURS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND TAPER OFF AROUND 06Z FRIDAY
MORNING.  MOST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE CLEAR BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THRU 15Z THIS AM...THE LATEST RUC40 SHOWS THE SNOW BAND CURRENTLY
OVER SRN NEB MOVING QUICKLY NORTH INTO SE SD BY 15Z.  THIS IS NOT
UNUSUAL FOR BANDED WAA PCPN AND THE ETA OFTEN UNDER FCSTS THIS TYPE
OF COVERAGE.  EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1/2 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES.

15Z-00Z TODAY....CONT WAA PCPN.  POTENTIAL DRY SLOT PER SATELLITE
WILL SWING THRU MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WITH SNOWFALL RATES DECREASING
TO 1/4 INCH PER HOUR OR LESS...MOSTLY LESS.  THEN THE ETA SHOWS DRY
SLOT QUICKLY FILLING IN AND A SECOND SNOW BAND DEVELOPING OVER KS
AND MOVING NORTH INTO NEB 18Z-21Z THIS AFTN.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAIN FCST QUESTION IS IF THE DEFORMATION ZONE
SETS UP TONIGHT LIKE THE ETA IS FCSTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TYPICALLY
ARE MUCH GREATER THEN ANY OF THE MODELS FCST.  MOISTURE IS
ADEQUATE...THERMODYNAMICS ARE VERY GOOD...WIND FIELDS/ADVECTIONS ARE
LIGHT...FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAK AND TRANSITORY...EPV/CSI INDICATIONS
ARE ALSO OCCASIONAL AND TRANSITORY.  THUS THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT
A VERY HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL SET UP.  SO THIS IS NOT AN OBVIOUS SNOW
MACHINE BUT A CONDITIONAL ONE.

FOR TONIGHT THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE AND THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THURSDAY AS THE H7 LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY ACROSS NRN KS ON A MOSTLY
EASTERLY OR SLIGHT NORTH OF EAST TRACK. THE LOCAL STUDIES AKA "THE
SPRINGER MODEL" SUGGEST WINTER STORM/ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE SRN HALF OF FCST AREA.

THE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SW NEB AND THE SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE EXPANDED TO COVER GARDEN...DEUEL...LOUP...WHEELER AND
GARFIELD COUNTIES.

.EXTENDED...
MINI-ICE AGE CONTINUES.  NEW AVN SHOWS A COMPACT H7 LOW DEVELOPING
OVER COLO SATURDAY AND SWEEPING INTO KS SUNDAY MORNING.  TRACK OF
H7 LOW SUGGEST CHC OF SNOW BUT SYSTEM IS VERY COMPACT AND MOISTURE
IS NON EXISTENT.  WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC -S/FLURRIES.

AWAITING THE MRF FOR REST OF EXTENDED.  NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY THRU TONIGHT NE38>58-59>69-71.